深圳蒲圈

Encouraging the birth policy is hard to say that it will be effective, but it does not do its best, and certainly has no effect.
 

The population situation in China is grim. There is no need to say more about this issue. The second year of the full release of the second child, 2017, the birth population is 630,000 fewer than in 2016, which is the clearest evidence. Judging from the 7% drop in the number of marriages just released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs this year, the situation in the future will only be more severe.
 

The population situation in some developed countries and regions is also very serious, and the important lesson to us is that even if many birth policies are adopted, the effect is not good. For example, in Japan, women not only enjoy maternity leave after birth, but also have childcare holidays. The combined length of the two is about one year. In addition to parenting holidays, if the child is sick and has a holiday, the care of the sick child is also considered a vacation. Secondly, women who do not work can get a subsidy of 420,000 yen (2.1 million yuan) in one lump sum; women who have already worked can receive a subsidy of millions of yen according to the monthly salary. However, the latest data is that Japan has a birth population of less than one million each year. In fact, the fertility rate in the world as a whole shows a downward trend.
 

Doing the best to promote fertility is also the result. If you do not do your best, the consequences will only be more serious.
 

The good news is that historically, there are still countries that have had successful experiences in revitalizing their children. As early as the 1930s, the Swedish government realized the importance of increasing fertility rate to the generations of society, because the country had a relatively high level of socio-economic development, women were independent, pursued personal life and career, and did not want to be reproductive. The most important task of traditional women. The Swedish government recognizes that in order to increase fertility, the whole society must be aware that it should create the best conditions for the growth of children, greatly improve the welfare of children, and have a series of policy support in medical care and education. Moreover, the government will provide various welfare benefits to families with children, and even send a babysitter directly to your home to help you take care of your children. Under such circumstances, the fertility rate in Sweden has been successfully improved. Today's Nordic countries are quite good at the overall performance of fertility.
 

 

For our country, people should realize that “allowing you to have a few” will not become the decisive factor for fertility. Therefore, even if family planning is fully liberalized, no matter how many children are born, the fertility rate will not be so large. Increase in range.
 

However, the complete liberalization of this restriction has a strong "signal" effect. People will judge the government's determination by observing the strength of the signal.
 

And nowadays, the so-called "subsidies" of the "500 yuan subsidies" and "exemption of a certain amount of education fees" in some prefecture-level cities are almost negligible in the face of the cost of raising a child. It is also completely unresolved, because the level is too low, and it may be repeated at any time. There will be no next year, and it will even be dominated by the higher level government.
 

In particular, when the policy of “giving children only give a small amount of subsidy + super-life and punish you” is in front of the public, the public may not be able to feel the government’s desire to increase fertility, and then it may be for the future country. The birth policy has negative expectations, and speculations such as "will not be changed to one after another" will also greatly dampen people's fertility enthusiasm. When the country has not yet expressed a clear signal on the issue of “encourage fertility”, the reality will only be like this.
 

Therefore, the most important thing at the moment is that higher-level government departments should clarify the top-level design. If there is indeed an idea to increase fertility, then people should clearly receive the signal: "The government wants everyone to live more."
 

And this is just a starting point. But if the starting point does not appear, people will never let go of their concerns about having children.